The hottest PE daily review price falsely rises bu

PE daily review: prices rose falsely but fell in real terms, and the future king of hell closed the imp.

today's viewpoint:

China's diesel imports fell sharply last month, adding another new sign of slowing economic growth. China's largest oil company also warned that its business was being hit by a sharp contraction in demand

China has also become a net exporter of gasoline for the second consecutive month, mainly because the motor power of drivers moving up and down the beam is 0.55kw; Reduce driving in order to save costs. Fuel oil imports for power generation also fell

China is the world's second largest oil consumer after the United States. In recent years, China's demand for imported oil has increased rapidly, driving the global oil price all the way up until reaching a record high this summer; The signs of declining demand in China are also one of the reasons for the sharp decline in oil prices since then

however, China announced a 4trillion yuan ($586billion) economic stimulus plan last week; There are preliminary signs that the plan is promoting the local government to embark on high power consumption infrastructure projects, which may boost China's demand for fuel and other commodities

Jiang Jiemin, general manager of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC for short), said in a statement on the company's website that since September, domestic oil demand has shrunk sharply, and market sales have been sluggish, resulting in a surge in oil and refined oil inventories. The statement said that with the intensification of the global financial crisis and the deepening impact on China's economy and finance, the company's production and operation have also been greatly negatively affected. CNPC group is the parent company of China National Petroleum Corporation Limited (PetroChina for short) listed in Hong Kong and New York

PetroChina group is under increasing pressure to reduce prices, and the market is forcing the company to reduce the retail price of its gas stations below the narrow range set by the government. With these methods, gas stations of other companies have sounded a price war in some parts of China. In some parts of China, wholesale prices, which are more loosely regulated, are also declining. Jiang Jiemin said that as industrial demand shrank, the price of petrochemical products also fell sharply

China's diesel imports fell to the lowest monthly level in more than a year in October, because the continuous economic slowdown suppressed demand and traders were unwilling to increase their already high inventories. According to the preliminary data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported 80000 tons of diesel oil in October, a year-on-year decrease of 46.4%, which is significantly lower than 338838 tons in September

advertising China's oil data often have unexplained short-term sharp fluctuations. Analysts warned not to pay too much attention to single month data. Diesel inventories seem to have increased significantly before the Olympic Games, which may be one of the reasons for the sharp decline in imports last month

the Chinese government does not release data on crude oil inventories or state-owned oil products, but analysts believe that China's diesel inventory in the first nine months of this year was more than twice that of the same period last year

a trader in Singapore said that many trucks use diesel as fuel, so if economic growth slows, the demand for diesel for transportation will also fall sharply

in view of the introduction of the economic stimulus plan, Credit Suisse has raised China's fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate from 5 to 500 square meters of experimental platform 8% to 6.8%. Tao Dong, an economist at Credit Suisse, said in a report that a wave of infrastructure investment driven by the local government is just starting. He said that these projects had been ready to start but were stopped by the central government, so the restart was also quite rapid

large-scale construction may drive higher demand for oil and other bulk commodities. The heavy machinery required by the construction project needs to use diesel, and more construction activities also need to consume more electricity, which may push up the consumption of fuel oil

although the import of refined oil such as diesel fell, China's crude oil import increased steadily in October, which may be because Chinese oil companies are taking advantage of the current relatively cheap global oil prices to replenish inventories. Some analysts also said they believed that the Chinese government was buying crude oil to enrich its strategic oil reserves

prediction: the national 4trillion is the confidence of the whole Chinese economy next year, and the 100billion to be spent this year is to save small and medium-sized enterprises. The big cake will be cut next year, and the small cake will be cut now. Domestic and foreign dishes will rush for this small cake. Plastic imports will arrive in Hong Kong in large quantities in the later stage (whether the news is true or false, judging from the situation of plastic futures trading in Europe and the United States today, it is still dominated by a sharp decline, especially in Europe). If there is no accident, the import advantage lies in quality, which is bound to take a lead in competing with China for domestic market share (money, business and territory). The domestic materials led by PetroChina and SINOPEC are bound to fight back. The only feasible weapon to fight back is to think about the price

take the 100billion yuan launched in the early stage as an example, about 50billion yuan is mainly invested in agriculture, forestry and water, and about 50billion yuan is invested in affordable housing, environmental protection, transportation and other departments. Apart from housing (the real estate market around the country is still depressed), environmental protection is definitely the nemesis of the chemical industry (it may also restrict the development of plastics), transportation and mining are related to steel. I don't think other departments should be PetroChina and Sinopec, hehe. The international oil price is falling, but the domestic refined oil is not falling. During this period, the profit is very considerable! If refining and chemical industry soars again or reaches out to the state for money, even if it is not scolded or beaten to death, the energy administration and the national development and Reform Commission should also consider it when paying money

therefore, Lao Xie judged that in the later stage, the plastic market will not be divided into many "small cakes", and domestic and imported materials will have a big price war. In the later stage, whether the price rises or falls (I have a little more bearish ingredients in the later stage), the magnitude of the shock will inevitably make traders lose their eyes, so it will inevitably lead to downstream enterprises choosing to "sit on the mountain and watch the tiger fight" again. 9000 yuan/ton is now a barrier that must be passed in front of the transaction. There are few transactions above this price (I think there should be none). It is expected that the price will remain stable this week and the market will remain stable. And next week, the "king of hell" will accept the "imp"

I. opening summary

pre holiday inventory: the market fell slightly after the sharp rise

today's highlights: the market quotation is chaotic, the high limit of the futures market, and PetroChina and Sinopec have significantly raised the factory price

tomorrow's focus: the trend of petrochemical factory price, market mentality and market price trend, and the external market situation

II. Raw materials

PetroChina group also predicts that China's oil demand will slow down before the end of the year due to the slowdown in economic growth and the decline in the output value of energy intensive industries. It is expected that the demand will only increase by 4% over the previous year. Oil demand in the first three quarters of this year increased by 5% to 6% over the same period last year

ethylene:

ethylene prices in Asia have fallen all the way since early July. Its continuous strong performance in the derivatives market boosted buyer sentiment to a certain extent, making Asian ethylene rebound by $20/ton on Monday. It is said that the purchase intention on Monday is USD/T CFR China. An Indonesian PE manufacturer offered us $350/ton CFR Indonesia for a shipment delivered in the second half of December, while a Japanese trader's sales intention was US $450/ton CFR Indonesia. Today, Asian ethylene market sentiment was boosted by the continuous rebound in PE prices. Asian HDPE film prices rose $20/ton to $775/ton CFR China, as China's PE purchase intention remained strong. The price of ethylene glycol in Asia rose slightly from US $5/ton to US $452.5/ton CFR China (90 day letter of credit). In addition to the resumption of spot ethylene purchase intention, the spot supply is still relatively limited due to the production reduction of many naphtha cracking units. In the morning, the naphtha cracking profit in Northeast Asia improved, but it was still negative. It is expected to be negative $241/ton in the morning, while it was negative $275/ton last Friday

III. ex factory price dynamics

PetroChina: PetroChina's price skyrocketed

Sinopec: Sinopec's price skyrocketed

other petrochemicals: prices remained stable

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